Hidden Factor Cost Calculator

What does a missed factor actually cost you?

Run the numbers on your specific deal. The calculator estimates your exposure to factors that conventional diligence can't reach, and shows you when a Precision Insight session pays for itself.

Your decision

Enter a deal you're weighing. Numbers stay in your browser. Nothing is submitted or stored.

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The full transaction value, position size, or capital deployed.
5% min 100% 100% max
The portion of the deal where you bear the loss if a hidden factor materializes. 100% means the loss is fully yours.
5% conservative 20% 60% high-risk
For most counterparty-dependent deals, the data suggests this lives between 15% and 35%. Use the lower end for vetted partners, the higher end for opaque or new counterparties.
10% partial 40% 100% total
The percentage of deal value at risk if the hidden factor activates. 40% reflects a typical material loss; 100% reflects deals where a single hidden factor takes value to zero.
Your exposure
$1,600,000
Expected loss exposure from unseen factors on this deal, before any intelligence work.
Worst-case loss if factor activates $8,000,000
Cost of one Precision Insight session $4,995
Break-even risk reduction 0.3%

A Precision Insight session pays for itself if it shifts your probability estimate by just 0.3%. Below that threshold, the math favors running the session.

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The calculator is an exposure estimator, not a forecast. PSIGNAL does not predict outcomes. The figures shown reflect a simple expected-value model based on your inputs and are intended to help you reason about the cost of unseen factors, not to project specific results.